Leadville 100MTB FTP?


#1

I am training for my first Leadville 100MTB this August. I was wondering if there is any information out there in regard to how watts/kg relates to finishing time? In other words what kind of watts/kg does it take just to finish sub 12 hour? Sub 11? Sub 10? Sub 9?..and so forth. A chart would be awesome! I know there is much more to that race than just your FTP…endurance, nutrition, coral position etc. But it would be nice to have an idea of a time frame to set a reasonable goal. I currently at a 3.0 watt/kg with hopes of a 3.5 come race day. Thanks!


#2

I’d have to go back and dig through my data to confirm, but rough guidelines for a sea level athlete

  • 4.5w/kg: Sub 9 if you have a solid day, Sub 8 on a perfect day
  • 4 w/kg: Sub 10 if you have a solid day, Sub 9 on a perfect day
  • 3.5w/kg: Sub 11 if you have a solid day, Sub 10 on a perfect day
  • 3w/kg: Sub 12 if you have a solid day, Sub 11 on a perfect day

#3

I was around 4 watt/kg at sea level (maybe 4.1) and did a 8:53 (or something like that).

That’s with a blowup. I think you could take 10 minutes off that time if you had better handling skills.

I was super optimized though with equipment and nutrition (unless I wasn’t :laughing:).


#4

It’s interesting how close you and I were for the first half of the course. Within 1 minute over 4 and a half hours!

39%20PM

(I was 4w/kg on race day)


#5

Thanks you all! This is all good information. My original goal was just to finish the darn race, but thanks to TR my FTP keeps on going up exponentially. If I can get up to 3.5 watts/kg I may have to change my goal to sub 11 or 10 1/2. Im also a Leadville native, so that might help. I have another question about Leadville, but I submitted it to the TR team so I’ll wait to see if Nate answers it on the next Podcast :wink:


#6

I’m right here :smile:. Ask away!


#7

If you’re currently living in Leadville you have a big advantage being acclimatized to 10k feet. A 3.0 W/kg in Leadville is about the same as someone who has a 3.75W/kg at sea level and travels to Leadville for the race (no/little acclimatization).

I’m 3.25 W/kg at 7k feet and rode it in 9:38. 3.25 W/kg is about 3.0 at 10k feet - so you’d be similar to me. I think a sub 10 is possible for you if you have a good day - right pacing, hydration and nutrition; no cramps, mechanicals or crashes.

Ride the Silver Rush as a prep race. It will help you dial in your equipment, hydration, nutrition - and you may also be able to improve you’re corral placement into purple or maybe green. And it’s a good benchmark to estimate what your LT100 finishing time might be.


#8

I did the LT100MTB at around 3.5 this year and finished in 10:39. Everything went perfect for me. My original goal was to finish under 12, but as I got close to the event, I knew my fitness was really good and adjusted my goal to sub 11.


#9

Thank! Its great to have an idea of what the time frame will be for me. Time to put in the work, and get my ftp up. I think sub 11 is definitely doable


#10

Well my question I submitted to the team was this. My sweet spot training followed by sustained power build followed by the century plan will end in April. Should I continue to train with TR after that leading up to the race in August? Or should I spend most if not all of my time on the MTB100 course? Riding the course will familiarize me with the course as well as develop technical skills, but training on the trainer will ensure that I train at threshold which in turn will yield a higher ftp. I do not have a power meter to train outdoors.


#11

As you probably know, the course is not technical. The power line and sugar loaf descent had me hitting the brakes, but I suck.

I don’t think this is an either or thing. I’d do Sunday aerobic rides on course and do the rest on the trainer. I think you’d get the best mix of both worlds with that.


#12

I started a similar topic on the Leadville 100 MTB Participants group on Facebook, where a members have been sharing some very interesting data on qualifying event times and their LT100MTB finish times. You can find it here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/529816427053506/permalink/2197890500246082/


#13

@Nate, wanted to tag you on this, as you might find it interesting. Feel free to ping me, if you would like the backup data–could make a very interesting podcast episode!

I have run some analysis on how qualifying event times have translated for athletes that went on to attempt the LT100MTB. The “Over” column indicates the count of athletes that finished the LT100MTB in a time greater than their corral position might have indicated, and “Under” means they came in under the cut-off time for that corral.

As far as getting a good corral position, Wilmington Whiteface looks to be the best bet, followed by the Barn Burner. See the analysis below–I think it’s very illuminating:

Austin Rattler
Corral Avg Austin time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Silver n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Red 04:29:36 1 08:20:10 1 1.86x 0 1
Green 04:46:35 9 08:05:09 9 1.69x 0 9
Purple 05:15:13 11 09:04:55 10 1.74x 0 10
Orange 06:01:48 46 10:09:26 46 1.69x 11 35
Blue 06:46:24 22 10:53:11 18 1.61x 1 17
White 07:22:15 23 11:31:07 18 1.57x 18 0
Overall 06:15:38 112 10:13:12 102 1.66x 30 72
Willmington Whiteface 100k
Corral Avg Whiteface Time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Silver 04:37:18 13 08:50:16 13 1.91x 10 3
Red 04:54:46 14 09:38:40 13 1.96x 13 0
Green 05:16:48 15 10:33:08 15 2.00x 14 1
Purple 05:44:58 20 11:20:45 17 1.97x 15 2
Orange 06:24:00 17 11:25:49 10 1.82x 8 2
Blue 07:22:35 6 12:34:34 2 1.71x 1 1
White 08:53:12 1 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Overall 05:38:22 86 10:26:28 70 1.93x 61 9
Lutsen 99er
Corral Avg Lusten Time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold 05:21:01 1 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Silver 05:35:53 3 08:16:26 2 1.47x 1 1
Red 05:48:28 5 08:37:27 5 1.49x 3 2
Green 06:05:22 3 09:57:09 3 1.63x 3 0
Purple 06:38:07 36 10:21:37 33 1.56x 21 12
Orange 07:16:52 15 10:58:00 14 1.51x 7 7
Blue 08:04:35 25 11:31:21 14 1.46x 4 10
White 09:12:19 2 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Overall 07:05:15 90 10:30:39 71 1.52x 39 32
Silver Rush 50 Mile
Corral Avg Silver Rush Time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold 04:05:32 6 07:18:48 5 1.79x 0 5
Silver 04:20:29 6 07:35:50 5 1.75x 0 5
Red 04:55:55 50 08:41:13 49 1.76x 29 20
Green 05:30:31 57 09:39:35 56 1.75x 46 10
Purple 06:08:48 71 10:35:42 67 1.73x 53 14
Orange 06:52:45 61 11:29:17 53 1.67x 41 12
Blue 07:36:41 29 12:00:17 25 1.58x 13 12
White 08:11:41 11 12:07:08 2 1.49x 2 0
Overall 06:06:37 291 10:14:43 262 1.71x 184 78
Tahoe Trail 100k
Corral Avg Tahoe Time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold 03:58:50 1 07:14:39 1 1.82x 0 1
Silver 04:30:22 4 07:23:37 3 1.62x 0 3
Red 05:00:40 19 08:28:57 18 1.69x 9 9
Green 05:37:31 33 09:36:10 31 1.71x 25 6
Purple 06:20:46 23 10:49:14 23 1.71x 18 5
Orange 07:04:56 10 11:48:46 9 1.66x 8 1
Blue 08:03:27 2 12:32:40 2 1.56x 2 0
White 08:56:49 1 n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a
Overall 05:51:25 93 09:53:09 87 1.69x 62 25
Leadville Stage Race
Corral Avg Leadville Stage Time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold 06:34:52 9 07:17:10 9 1.11x 2 7
Silver 07:16:51 11 08:14:53 11 1.13x 6 5
Red 07:46:59 14 09:22:31 13 1.20x 12 1
Green 08:14:58 23 09:22:11 22 1.14x 15 7
Purple 09:01:38 25 10:23:27 22 1.16x 14 8
Orange 09:43:39 18 10:57:39 18 1.13x 8 10
Blue 10:18:40 13 11:49:15 8 1.15x 3 5
White 11:18:09 26 11:56:06 14 1.09x 14 0
Overall 09:06:47 139 10:00:57 117 1.14x 74 43
Barn Burner 104 Mile
Corral Avg BarnBurner Time Count Avg LT100 Time Count Avg Multiplier Over Under
Gold 05:51:21 1 06:39:31 1 1.14x 0 1
Silver 06:49:22 1 08:15:06 1 1.21x 1 0
Red 07:18:14 5 09:02:14 5 1.24x 5 0
Green 07:47:12 7 10:36:19 6 1.36x 7 0
Purple 08:17:39 12 10:23:11 10 1.26x 10 2
Orange 08:44:48 8 11:03:08 6 1.27x 6 2
Blue 09:37:38 1 12:10:51 1 1.27x 1 0
White n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Overall 08:04:52 35 10:12:10 30 1.27x 30 5

#14

I just got an email that the austin rattler has a change of venue. So the times go out the window with it :frowning:


#15

Reference for the LT100MTB corral times.


#16

Nice work!

If I’m interpreting this correctly, this shows that most of the qualifiers (Austin being the exception) will tend to get you into a corral that is above your abilities.

I thought that based on my Silver Rush qualifier. I got into the green corral, which in theory would have meant I could do a sub nine. I did 9:38.


#17

Correct; i.e. green corral at SR would imply a <9:00 finish at the LT100MTB; to get into the green corral by using your LT100MTB time the following year, you would need to have come in under 9:00.

I’m working on a way to re-cut the analysis to make that a little more intuitive…


#18

Well done, @wbendus! Is this data from a single year? If so, what year?


#19

Yes; this past year–2018 results.


#20

Yes Sir you are correct and I’m wondering what the course will be like at the new venue, the new venue will be “Reveille Peak” which has a lot of new trail that has been cut and might be worth a day trip down to hit the trails and do some advance homework.