Power duration curve - establishing power targets for long rides

How can a cyclist estimate their power duration curve, particularly for longer efforts like gran fondos, endurance gravel, and ultra distance MTB races? Further, how does the rider then identify what power targets to establish for hills and flat sections? Is the duration of the climbs a consideration (ie would the target for a 45 min climb be different than the target for a 1.5 hr climb)? How do coasting and “active” recovery factor into target setting?

Is there a way to utilize my power data, which is primarily 1, 1.5, and 2 hour TR workouts, sprinkled with a handful of up to 3 hour outdoor rides, to personalize my targets?

I’m looking to establish power targets for some races/rides that are leading up to my ‘A’ race—Leadville Trail 100MTB.

I’d look at the Leadville course specifically and base your targets and goals off of that.

A 0.7 IF for a long ride like Leadville is reasonable. This likely means riding the hills at higher IF, flats about that IF, and then coasting on the downhills.

The best way to determine pacing for the long climbs is to do some long climbs and test and see what pacing works for you where you can complete the climb but are not totally spent afterwards. Then dial that back a notch to account for Leadville being repeated climbs.

One thing to also remember is to adjust your FTP as appropriate for pacing on the day of the race to account for altitude. 20% is a good rule of thumb if coming from sea level, and not acclimatized.

I don’t have a power meter and pace using a combination of RPE and heart rate. The main thing is to not go out too hard - which can be tempting on the Kevin’s and Sugarloaf climbs when you are fresh.

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The GP5000’s have been reported as being less grippy than the GP4000S2’s in certain circumstances.

I’ve not had a single issue with GP4000S2’s (25mm) in many years (used with Michelin A1 ultralight butyl tubes) and have stocked up on them at a pretty cheap price. They are amazing tyre and I see no reason to go changing a winning combination.