The Bell curve of cylists - how fast are the average TR users?


I agree, I thought I was way lower on the totem pole because I am just over moo hundred lbs or 91kg. Turns out I am right in the middle of the pack! I felt pretty good when I saw that.


Everybody (inc myself) is looking for the magic formula, unfortunately there are too many variables (inc our DNA) for this.

I think the best we can hope for is “bands” such as;

In the 40-50yr age group the best FTP increase results seen are xxhrs / week @ xxIF. Using this base data Chad can get busy redefining the training plans :open_mouth:

It’s stretching my statistical knowledge but you could probably enter a required FTP and the data could give you a plan with a % chance of achieving it. (based on your age / time required)

Depending on your individual genetic make up and life stress will depend on how near the top or bottom of the band you are.

Interesting project though.:sunglasses:


This totally relies on people logging truthfully and consistently though.

I use myfitnesspal nearly everyday, but some days (quite regularly) I don’t finish it due to various factors (knowing i’m nicely under the goal, knowing im way over, complicated meal I can’t be arsed to log etc) :blush:


@CZS I was thinking along the same lines as you a while ago:

As someone pointed out, the main issue is ensuring accuracy of the data collected.


@Nate thank you for posting the data, i dont see it as negative, folks need to make of it what they will… just like each work out, race or whatever… on the Strava Segment front i love the fact your seeing that as a challenge to drive you and it will make for great smack talk going forward on the podcasts, i feel the same about a few segments around my way… though i have turned off notifications for winter :slight_smile: just please stay healthy using what you have learnt about your previous lessons…would hate to see you be burn’t out for that windy day … LoL good luck sir !


Hey @Nate,

If you are adding this could you have user selected reason code? I often have to stop workout early due to time pressures or a child needing help etc. Having the ability to filter out the workouts where I failed vs had to stop would be really cool. If the pick list was user specific & maintainable that would also be a great addition…

Keep up the good work! You are the most accessible CEO of any of the fitness products I use. I think this is awesome


My friend told me about this site/app called mywindsock that you can just have notify you when wind is favourable for your segment of choice :wink:

(I haven’t tested it out and can’t comment on the quality of this product but it looks cool! And might save you time checking weather forecasts…)


I’ve used the basic version of mywindsock and it is pretty cool.

I imagine the wind notifications are part of the premium membership though.


Yup, we understand this and we’ve got a few questions lined up for workouts where you didn’t complete them exactly as prescribed.


Woo hoo, I’m totally average for females at age 52!



Know what, a podcast about Grit is an awesome idea. Some of us actually are working on becoming more resilient rather than just faster :slight_smile:

You could also feature athletes from ultra endurance events as well (including TransAm, and so much more). Their training and preparation is pretty much uncharted territory


Really interesting curves - especially the age ones @Nate I’ve struggled to make any real FTP gains these last few years as I turned 50 (albeit my P/W has gone up due to weight loss). So actually I’m pleased that I am still holding on to what I have! The struggle is real!


Ive had 2 pioneers single sided meters and they have been fantastic, the best single sided PM you can get but massively underrated.


Plugging a different podcast - The Cycling Podcast have just launched a series called Explore

The first episode was about The Transcontinental Race, the second about Australia including The Indian Pacific Wheel Race and the third which I partly listened to whilst doing a TR workout is about Lands End to John O’Groats


I hear ya… but the human factor is always going to be the limiting factor I would think.

As for complicated meals (i.e. Thanksgiving Dinner) I just guesstimate on the calories and don’t bother with the rest. Other than that I always try to complete each day even if it’s a couple of days late.

My log streak on MFP is 1557 days and counting. :slight_smile:


I know, it’s crazy to think that if you just maintained your power between 40 and 50 you’re really moving to the right side of the bell curve like you increased your watt/kg by .25. That’s pretty significant in my mind!

If you also get a bit smarter (as we all do) and can race better you can really improve your results even though your raw watt/kg didn’t move.


You are average in the "highly-motivated and smart’ category. These are cyclists who own power meters and want to train indoors with TrainerRoad. That puts you in rarefied air to start with!


Mines 3.85 according to virtual power.

I’ll just assume it’s in the 3’s W/kgs in real power terms.

So pretty average. I’m in the recovery week of ssbmv1 so we’ll see if TR works. :slight_smile:


More fun data! This time I pulled raw FTP data for men and women.

Interesting facts:

  • The top of the bell curve for Men is between 230-240 watts.
  • Men “mess up” the bell curve at 200 and 300 watts; both are “over reported” and don’t fit the bell curve. My guess is that men tend to round up at these numbers due to our egos :rofl:. I know I’ve been at 290 before and went “Might as well make it an even 300!”.
  • Women seem to suffer the same rounding up issues as men at 200 watts.
  • The top of the bell curve for women is between 150-160 (80 watts lower than men).

Men Raw FTP

Women Raw FTP